Displaying items by tag: Russia

A new report from the Centre for Strategic and International Studies estimates that around 1.2 million Russian troops have been killed, wounded or gone missing since the invasion of Ukraine nearly four years ago. Despite this enormous human cost, Russia has expanded its control of Ukrainian territory by only about 12%: in the past two years, only by 1.5%. The statistics challenge assertions that a Russian victory is inevitable, noting that Ukraine’s defensive strategy of trenches, mines, obstacles, drones and artillery has limited Russian advances to minimal gains. Mark Rutte has said that in December alone Russia lost 30,000 soldiers (in Afghanistan, they lost 20,000 in ten years). The toll far exceeds Russia’s losses in all its post–World War II conflicts combined. Economically, the war has weakened Russia’s long-term prospects, slowing growth, deepening labour shortages. The war is burdening the not only the current Russian economy but its future prospects, the report says: the country ‘is becoming a second- or third-rate economic power’. Yet Putin is unlikely to settle for a peace deal without further Western pressure on his regime.

The Arctic occupies a central place in Vladimir Putin’s strategic thinking, combining vast natural resources with critical military importance. Russia controls more than half of the Arctic coastline and sees the Northern Sea route as a future rival to the Suez Canal, especially as melting ice opens new shipping lanes. Western sanctions since the invasion of Ukraine have increased Moscow’s reliance on Arctic energy exports and on China as an investor and customer. At the same time, climate change threatens Arctic infrastructure built on thawing permafrost, raising risks of environmental disasters and disease. Militarily, the region underpins Russia’s nuclear deterrent, with key submarine bases on the Kola Peninsula protected by layered defences. Yet NATO’s growing presence and China’s expanding role complicate Putin’s ambitions. The Arctic promises power and prestige, but it is also increasingly unstable and contested.

As Ukraine is enduring one of the harshest winters of the war, Russian strikes continue to target the country’s energy infrastructure. In Kyiv alone, around four thousand buildings remain without heating and nearly 60% of the city has lost electricity following recent attacks. Across the country, communities face similar disruptions amid freezing temperatures. Volodymyr Zelensky has declared a state of emergency in the energy sector, with schools closed, public lighting reduced, and hundreds of thousands leaving the capital. He has also criticised the mayor of Kyiv, former boxer Vitali Klitschko, for not doing enough to restore power quickly. Hospitals have reported more than a thousand cases of frostbite and hypothermia in recent weeks. Emergency warming tents now dot the city, offering shelter and food. Germany has described Russian winter attacks on energy as war crimes, and the International Criminal Court has issued arrest warrants for two top military officials said to be responsible for them.

On a visit to the UK, Karol Nawrocki, Poland’s president, has warned that Europe faces an increasingly dangerous security environment and believes only Donald Trump can restrain Russia’s ambitions. He said that Russia could not be trusted and was actively testing both Poland’s defences and Europe’s unity. He pointed to large-scale drone incursions from Belarus and Ukraine as evidence of a sustained hybrid conflict, involving military pressure and disinformation. While expressing concern about tensions within the Western alliance, he argued that Donald Trump remained Europe’s essential security guarantor and deserved support for efforts to end the war in Ukraine. Nawrocki praised Britain’s military assistance and criticised European leaders for neglecting defence readiness. With Poland investing heavily in security, he urged greater focus on resilience, cooperation and unity in what he described as dangerous and uncertain times.

The United Kingdom and France have agreed in principle to deploy troops in Ukraine if a peace deal with Russia is reached, marking a significant step in European security planning. Keir Starmer said the declaration of intent would allow British, French and partner forces to operate across Ukraine to deter future aggression, while Emmanuel Macron suggested thousands of troops could be involved. Allies meeting in Paris broadly agreed on the need for robust security guarantees, with the USA expected to lead monitoring of any ceasefire. However, major questions remain unresolved, particularly over territory occupied by Russia and the precise terms of enforcement. Moscow has warned foreign troops would be legitimate targets and has so far remained silent on the proposals. Volodymyr Zelensky, who said on 1 January that a peace deal was ‘90% ready’, welcomed the talks as progress but stressed that guarantees would only matter if they truly ended the war, as pressure grows on all sides to compromise.

Chief of the Defence Staff, Air Chief Marshal Sir Richard Knighton, has warned that the nation needs more people prepared to defend the country amid growing global instability and rising threats from Russia. He called for a 'whole-of-society response' to deter conflict, stressing the importance of strengthening regular forces, reserves, cadets, and the defence workforce. While he said the likelihood of a direct Russian attack on the UK remains remote, he highlighted intensifying hybrid threats, including cyber-attacks, suspected sabotage, and hostile surveillance near UK waters. He described Russia’s military as increasingly sophisticated, combat-experienced, and expanding in hard power, despite setbacks in Ukraine. The UK, he said, must become a 'harder target' to avoid war rather than provoke it. Building national resilience, he argued, goes beyond military strength and includes universities, industry, energy, healthcare, and manufacturing. With defence spending set to rise sharply, he emphasised the need to inspire young people to pursue careers supporting national security. Recent investments include £50 million for new defence technical colleges to address critical skills gaps.

Ukraine has reported a significant battlefield development, with its armed forces reclaiming control over nearly 90% of the strategically important city of Kupiansk in the Kharkiv region. Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi announced the advance during a meeting with international allies, crediting targeted ‘search-and-strike’ operations and the resilience of his troops. Kupiansk, close to the Russian border, has long been a critical logistical hub and a focal point of intense fighting. Analysts say the Ukrainian gains could ease pressure on nearby frontline areas and disrupt Russian supply routes, though the wider conflict remains volatile, especially as winter conditions worsen. The update shows the fluid and contested nature of the war and the ongoing human and strategic costs of the conflict. Ukraine has also claimed to have destroyed a Russian submarine in the Black Sea: see Meanwhile, in a crucial summit on 18 December, at the time of writing European leaders are deadlocked on the thorny issue of whether to use frozen Russian funds to help Ukraine. See

General Sir Gwyn Jenkins, head of the Royal Navy, has issued a stark warning that the UK risks losing its long-held maritime advantage in the North Atlantic unless defence funding increases urgently. He said Britain is 'holding on, but not by much’, as Russia invests billions into rebuilding its naval power - especially its Northern Fleet - even while fighting in Ukraine. Russian activity in the North Atlantic has risen by 30% in two years, including incidents such as the Yantar spy ship shining a laser at RAF pilots. Jenkins warned that the greater threat lies beneath the surface, where vital undersea cables and energy pipelines are vulnerable to hostile interference. The Navy itself is facing severe strain: more vessels are tied up in port than operational, recruitment shortfalls are acute, and years of cuts and failed procurement programmes have left the fleet hollowed out. While avoiding direct criticism of the Government, Jenkins highlighted the widening gap between ministerial promises and available funding. He outlined a vision for a modernised 'hybrid navy', though it would not be fully ready until 2029 -  a timeline some fear may be too slow given rising global threats.

Donald Trump’s push to end the war in Ukraine is increasingly shaped by his impatience with Volodymyr Zelenskyy and European leaders who he believes are obstructing peace and future US–Russia economic ties. Stating that ‘Russia has the upper hand’ (a claim disputed by experts), he insisted Zelensky must ‘play ball’. Meanwhile, Zelensky and European partners worked to revise the US-led peace proposal, removing provisions which they considered unacceptable and stressing the need for firm security guarantees. Many commentators, alarmed by Trump’s pressure on Kyiv and his favourable posture toward Moscow, warn that conceding to Russia would reward aggression and endanger broader European security. In reply to Trump’s claim that Zelensky is using the war as an excuse to avoid holding elections, Zelensky has offered to do so if security could be guaranteed, although it would mean altering the constitution: see

The current round of diplomacy over the war in Ukraine suggests that Vladimir Putin remains firmly unwilling to accept any current peace proposal. After lengthy talks with Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov admitted that no compromise version has yet been found – not surprising given Putin’s increasingly uncompromising tone. He has denounced Ukraine’s leadership as a ‘thieving junta’, accused European leaders of obstructing peace efforts, and insisted Russia holds the battlefield initiative, even though many of his supposed gains are disputed by Ukraine and international observers. Russian state media has showcased Putin in military fatigues studying front-line maps, projecting confidence and momentum nearly four years into the invasion. Putin appears determined to convince both domestic and foreign audiences that he cannot be pressured into changing course. Yet sustaining war requires resources: oil and gas revenues are slipping, economic imbalances are widening, and the budget deficit is growing. The critical unknown is whether mounting economic strain will eventually alter the Kremlin’s wartime calculations.